Catch us if you can! Promotion points prediction
Could 89 pts be the magic number?
Following the FA Trophy heartache against Altrincham at the weekend, Macclesfield’s cup exploits are over for this season.
Unequivocally, the Silkmen’s main priority has always been securing promotion from the Northern Premier League, and they’ve made a mesmerising start. Top of the league with 50 points from 19 games, 12 points clear of second placed Guiseley who have played the same number of matches.
Of the chasing play-off pack, Worksop and Ilkeston sit third and fourth respectively, with 35 points from 20 games, whilst Hyde occupy fifth place on 32 points, also from 20 games.
So, how many points might Robbie Savage’s men require to win the league?
It’s not an exact science, but based on their current points-per-game (PPG) trajectories, Macc are set to finish on a whopping 110 points (based on a PPG of 2.63). With a current PPG of 2, Guiseley may land on 84 points, meaning that 85 points could be sufficient for the Silkmen to lift the Northern Premier League championship. Or in more practical terms, 35 points from 23 remaining league games (1.52 PPG), which amounts to 12 more wins, or 10 wins and 5 draws - more than doable.
How many points have been required historically to win the Northern Premier League (NPL)?
I’ve analysed the NPL standings for the last ten seasons - during that time the league has fluctuated between 20 and 24 teams (40-46 league matches). Last season was an anomaly when only 40 matches were played due to Marske United’s resignation from the NPL, as were the 2020-21 and 2019-20 seasons which were disrupted due to the Coronavirus pandemic.
For example, last season’s title winners Radcliffe finished on 87 points with Macc runners-up on 77. Had 42 games been played as intended, based on Radcliffe’s PPG you can estimate they would have finished on 91 points, meaning that 92 points would have been needed to clinch promotion.
So, with that in mind, below is how many points would have been needed to win the league in the previous seasons listed below. *NB the below totals are based on PPG on a 42 game season model to coincide with this season.
2023-24: 92 points
2022-23: 86 points
2021-22: 82 points
2020-21: disrupted (pandemic)
2019-20: abandoned (pandemic)
2018-19: 95 points
2017-18: 87 points
2016-17: 93 points
2015-16: 95 points
2014-15: 85 points
What could be the magic points total for Macc this season?
From the previous eight completed seasons, the average number of points needed to win the NPL and thus promotion to the National League North has been 89 points.
The lowest title-winning points tally was from Buxton who finished on 81 points in the 2021-22 season. In contrast, with 104 points, Darlington amassed the record number of points to win the NPL in 2016. However, Darlo’s points tally was accumulated from 46 games, suggesting that 95 points would have been needed to pip them to the post based on their PPG over 42 matches.
What could go wrong?
Based on Macc’s current form and with head coach Robbie Savage at the wheel, seemingly not a lot, actually. Rest assured, nothing from this group of players and management staff will be taken for granted and no stone will be left unturned in the Silkmen’s ambitions to win the league title.
Savage will remind his players that nothing is won in December, especially with over half of the remaining league games still to play.
But… it would take a remarkable drop in form for the Silkmen to fail from this position. However it can happen. Who can forget when Newcastle blew a 12-point lead to finish second to Man Utd in the Premier League in 1996 with 15 matches remaining.
In terms of worst case scenarios, Savage relinquishing his reins to manage a club in the English Football League has to be top of the list. He has been recently linked with the managerial vacancy at League One Northampton, but the smart money is on Savage remaining with Macc, at least for this season, as he strives to secure a promotion on his fledgling CV.
Other bumps in the road would be if the Silkmen suffered injuries to key players, such as clean sheet king Max Dearnley, midfield maestro John Rooney and prolific goal poacher Danny Elliott. But Macc have already coped admirably following the extended injury absences of Brandon Lee, Elliott Whitehouse and Danny Whitehead. Plus, with the NPL transfer window open until the third week in April, Savage still has plenty of time to draft in reinforcements should they be needed to complement a strong squad which is stacked with competition.
Macc will be targeting maximum points from their remaining December fixtures against Stockton, Bamber Bridge, Prescot Cables and Leek on Boxing Day.
Of the remaining months, January looks the toughest period as the Silkmen face play-off contenders Hyde, Worksop and Ashton in seven days.
In mid-April, we entertain Guiseley and Ilkeston back-to-back, but by then Macc will surely be out of sight and crowned champions, right? Fingers and toes crossed!
What’s your promotion prediction? Add your comments below!