From play-off pretenders to contenders - analysis & stats

Silkmen 5 Kidderminster 1 reaction

Macclesfield’s 5-1 hammering over an in-form Kidderminster Harriers has sent shockwaves around the National League North.

This wasn’t just three points and the Silkmen’s ninth victory in 15 home league games (three draws, three losses) which has catapulted us into the play-offs for the first time since the end of August. It was the sheer manner in which Macc put Kiddy to the sword :

• A play-off contender, unbeaten in 12 league and cup games

• Second only behind league leaders South Shields in the NLN form table (last eight games) and overall sitting in fourth place in the table

• Coming off seven wins out of nine games in the league, with six clean sheets out of their last seven

• The second best defence in the NLN – only 29 goals conceded in 28 matches before last night, with the best defensive record away from home (12 goals conceded in 14 games before last night)

• A team that has scored first in 20 of their 28 previous league games

And yet the Silkmen literally blew the visitors away on the coldest of Tuesday evenings. There were some similarities to this performance in comparison to the outstanding 2-1 victory over Radcliffe last month.

Attitude and performance

Like Radcliffe, Kidderminster arrived in good form but simply couldn’t cope with Macc’s tenacity, tireless pressing and intelligent runs, directness in getting the ball forward quickly and pace in the final third.

Manager John Rooney was once again rewarded for his astute team selection and brave tactical set-up. Cameron Borthwick-Jackson was brought in to partner Sam Heathcote in central defence as Rollin Menayese recovers from illness, which allowed captain Paul Dawson to push into midfield where he is so influential.

Dawson was involved in three of our five goals, whilst Borthwick-Jackson was a calming influence next to impressive loan signing Kacper Pasiek at left-back. Cameron provided balance as a natural left-footer with a good ability to read danger, particularly in the channels when Pasiek went roaming like a bull in a china shop to good effect.

Rooney went with a midfield three of Elliot Osborne, James Edmondson and Dawson, who complimented our now potent attacking trio of Luke Duffy, Josh Kay and D’Mani Mellor who are in scintillating form.

For as clinical and as positive as our attacking play was during a blistering first half, I was particularly pleased by how we dug in when Kidderminster pulled one back in the 58^th minute from Joe Foulkes. Rooney, who took some stick for not stemming the tide when Peterborough Sports were in the ascendancy after last week’s disappointing 4-3 loss, was more proactive here.

Macclesfield switched from a 4-3-3 to a 4-1-4-1 formation, with Osborne acting as a defensive screen in front of the back four, with Dawson and Edmondson anchoring central midfield, and Kay and Duffy dropping a little deeper from out wide.

Our fourth goal on 67 minutes proved decisive in clipping Kidderminster’s wings when they still had belief of salvaging a result. And from a Silkmen perspective there was so much to admire about it.

Kay and Dawson pressed the beleaguered Obi into a mistake, the ball broke to Pasiek who had made another lung-bursting run forward down the left. Pasiek’s centre, whipped in with pace and accuracy was almost converted by the onrushing Edmondson who had joined the attack. The ball broke to Mellor who showed admirable poise and accuracy by steering the ball into the net to register a brilliant hat-trick.

Edmondson’s second goal, deep in stoppage time, was the cherry on top. Cheap from Kidderminster’s perspective, but wonderful from ours. Here we had a midfield player in the 100^th minute of a game already won showing the desire, technical skill and class to embarrass Harriers’ goalkeeper Christian Dibble and round-off a superb evening.

Player ratings

Dearnley 7 – flapped at one corner early on, but after that his handling was faultless as Kidderminster did force a number of corners. Made a couple of important stops as the visitor’s upped the ante in the second half, but needed some help on their consolation goal having made a strong initial stop before Foulkes lashed home the rebound. After two uncertain performances against Peterborough and Bedford this was a much more assured performance.

Matheson 7.5 – was more subdued from an attacking perspective than we’ve seen in recent weeks, but he was sound defensively overall. He needed to be disciplined up against dangerman Devine on the left flank, and similarly when the lively Thompson came on at half-time. Matheson was tenacious, has an impressive leap in the air despite not being the tallest and supported our attacks when he could.

Heathcote 8 – less busier than usual, but no less commanding. Used the ball well out to the flanks and contributed a perfect assist which presented a tap-in for Mellor to make it 3-0.

Borthwick-Jackson 8 – a really complete performance. Positionally excellent, particularly when covering the space left in behind Pasiek when he pressed forward – tellingly Borthwick-Jackson made 4 interceptions and 3 clearances. Safe and secure in possession and he won some good headers which got us going on the front foot (5 out of 7 aerial duels won).

Pasiek 9 – love him. The Preston loanee is like a Yorkshire terrier. Fearless with boundless energy. Covered so much territory on the left flank and was positive in everything he did, both in supporting our attacks and keeping his dangerous opposite number Foulkes in check. Fantastic run and assist for our fourth goal. It’s early days, but Kacper has the makings of being a real crowd favourite. 19 defensive recoveries, 15 of 26 ground and aerial duels won, 1 key pass, 4 out of 4 accurate long balls and 2 out of 2 accurate crosses. He was also fouled more than other Macclesfield player (4 times), highlighting how much Kidderminster struggled to contain him.

Osborne 7.5 – cool, calm and collected. He’s made an unassuming but quietly impressive start to his Silkmen career. Rarely gives the ball away, oozes quality in being able to make difficult passes look simple, and delivers a great dead ball, as evidenced by his perfectly flighted free-kick in the build-up to our third goal.

Dawson 9 – tremendous first half from the captain who was restored to his most effective midfield position. An exquisite turn and crossfield ball released Duffy which was key to our opener. His through ball for Edmondson was accurate and perfectly weighted for Edmonson to make it 2-0. And although he was slightly quieter after the break, his tackle was pivotal in us regaining possession which led to our crucial fourth.

Based on Borthwick-Jackson’s performance last night, and Menayese and Fensome waiting in the wings, there seems no reason for Dawson to have to drop back into central defence this season.

Edmondson 9.5 – what a boost to have him until the end of the season. The young midfielder showed his full repertoire of midfield skills against Kidderminster. His opening goal stemmed from a brilliantly timed run to anticipate Dawson’s pass where he showed the composure and confidence to shoot rather than slow the move down and wait for support. He was tidy in possession and tigerish defensively.

But his willingness to join our attacks could be a huge plus as we seek to contribute more goals from midfield. Last night James had 3 of his 4 shots on target, and successfully completed 3 out of 4 dribbles, Edmondson has the technique and temperament to feature more regularly on the scoresheet and last night will have done his confidence the world of good.

Duffy 8 – continued his rich vein of form playing as a wide forward / winger in a 4-3-3 set-up. Rooney demanded more from his forwards and Duffy has stepped up to the plate. His willingness to attack full-backs and whip balls into the box was instrumental in last night’s opening goal. His workrate was exceptional, but his quality in possession also shone. Duffy’s end product in the final third has notably improved and his class could be key to unlocking the most stubborn of defences. Last night, Duffy’s average position on the pitch saw him play further forward than Mellor almost as a support striker.

Kay 7.5 – recovered well from a nasty challenge to almost play ninety minutes, highlighting his improving fitness and stamina. He may not have been at his best going forward and was generally starved of the ball (just 10 passes and 19 touches), but he put a real shift in – forming a lively front three with Duffy and Mellor in the first half which gave the Kidderminster rearguard fits.

Dawson will get the plaudits for the assist for Edmondson’s first goal, but Kay showed good strength to hold off a Kidderminster player to lay the ball off to Daws in the build-up. His pressing with Dawson also directly led to our decisive fourth goal as we regained possession and fed Pasiek on the wing to cross for Mellor’s eventual hat-trick strike.

Mellor 10 – I can’t recall awarding 10 before, but I can’t justify giving Mellor any less. He was exceptional. D’Mani has played nine games as a central striker following Danny Elliott’s season-ending injury, registering eight goals, and he’s arguably the best striker in the National League North right now. Mellor’s movement, acceleration and anticipation placed him in the right place at the right time for Macc’s first and third goals.

He’s always looking to play on the shoulder, and his workrate and desire to commit means that he’s always ready and able to punish mistakes by defenders, as evidenced by his hat-trick goal last night. In doing so, he made a difficult finish look easy by displaying good technique to strike the ball cleanly with sufficient power when many strikers would have fired over the bar. Mellor is an absolute revelation as a striker and like a new signing.

Play-off push on? Reasons for optimism…. and concern

I’ve kept my powder dry recently (work has been manic, sorry!) whilst procrastinating over the Silkmen’s chances of realistically making the play-offs. Victories over Oxford, Worksop and Bedford, whilst timely and deserved, came against teams in the lower half of the table. And then we had last week’s debacle against Peterborough Sports – a blip in an otherwise fantastic run of five league wins in our last six (including Kidderminster).

Last night was the acid test up against a team in great form with a huge playing budget (£1.2 million if rumours are to be believed) with a realistic expectation of gaining promotion via the play-offs. And it was a test we passed with flying colours – our finest performance of the season, eclipsing our brilliant 2-1 win over fellow play-off contenders Radcliffe who were also on the crest of the wave before coming unstuck at the Leasing.com stadium.

The positives

• We’re into the play-offs (7^th) for the first time since the end of August following our 2-1 win over Darlington with games in hand on all of the teams above us (3 on Radcliffe and Merthyr)

• Home form has been fundamental to the Silkmen climbing the table – we’ve earned big wins over four of the current top 6 (South Shields, Radcliffe, Kidderminster and Darlington) with AFC Fylde still to visit later this month. We’re averaging two points per game at home, having accumulated 30 points from 15 matches (9 wins and 3 draws). That’s promotion form…. IF we can pick up more points away from home (see Negatives).

• Along with Telford, we are the joint first best team in the form table in our last 6 games (15 points),

• Based on 27 league games so far, our points-per-game total (PPG) has now reached a season-high of 1.67. IF we can maintain this between now and the end of the season, then we would finish on 76 points. To put this into perspective, Buxton who occupied seventh place and last season’s final play off place finished on 77 points. However, the points tally needed to reach this season’s play-offs is currently tracking to be far less.

• In the last three NLN seasons, 77, 75 and as low as 68 points have been sufficient to secure a play-off spot, equating to a high of 1.67 PPG and a low of 1.47 PPG. If we can maintain our current form, or close to it, we will remain in contention for the play-offs. In fact, our PPG based on our last 8 league games is 1.88 (five wins, three losses)

• In terms of the PPG table, the Silkmen’s current ‘league position’ is tracking us to finish fifth, ahead of currently fifth-placed Radcliffe (1.63 PPG) and sixth-placed Darlington (1.64 PPG). In a division where seemingly anyone can beat anyone, only Telford, Buxton and Marine of the teams currently outside the play-offs are showing signs to suggest they can gatecrash the top 7.

• We’re scoring goals, lots of them in fact. After failing to score more than two all season, we’ve recently stuck three past Oxford and Peterborough, four past Worksop and FIVE past Kidderminster. To put this into perspective, we’ve increased our goals output by 40% in our last 8 league games, averaging 2.38 goals per game compared to our season average of 1.70. Buckley-Ricketts, Mellor and Duffy look currently unstoppable, whilst Dawson and Edmondson are back amongst the goals from midfield.

A point I keep ramming home is that possession isn’t always key. Against Kidderminster the Silkmen only had 40% of the ball, but we registered more efforts on goal (13 to their 6 with 8 on target) and impressively 9 of our 13 shots came inside the box. In a nutshell, we’re scoring more goals because we’re getting the ball forward into the final third more quickly, creating better quality chances inside the box, and are being more clinical with our finishing.

• Strength in numbers. The recent arrivals of Borthwick-Jackson and Pasiek have really strengthened the left side of our defence, plus the return to fitness of Luke Matheson has provided genuine competition between him and Lewis Fensome for the right back position. The addition of Osborne in midfield, combined with the unexpectedly welcome retention of James Edmondson is another welcome tonic.

Upfront we still appear a little light – D’Mani Mellor staying injury free seems absolutely crucial to our promotion hopes. But additions of Stone and Gale provide John Rooney with contrasting options instead of us having to rely on Sam Heathcote. With Justin Johnson nearing a return from injury, plus the re-emergence of Duffy and Buckley-Ricketts, Macclesfield look a real handful going forward.

The negatives

• Our fixture jam of playing Saturday-Tuesdaybetween now and the end of March will place considerable strain on the squad, not to mention the small matter of entertaining Premier League Brentford in the FA Cup later this month. Mentally and physically, Macclesfield’s players are going to be running on empty, with precious little time for John Rooney to work on tactical tweaks on the training field.

Beating Kidderminster is a huge tonic, which means we can go to South Shields full of confidence whilst knowing that a defeat wouldn’t be as damaging than if we hadn’t have won last night. However, seven games in February and nine in a punishing March could ultimately prove a bridge too far. Although two of them come against Hereford who also face a monumental fixture jam of their own!

The Silkmen have now played 27 league games, the same as Marine and Spennymoor who also have lingering play-off ambitions. Whilst a number of NLN teams have only played 28 – Fylde, Darlington, Telford, Buxton and Chorley whose resources and squads will also be tested. And better still, the Silkmen have to play Hereford twice (23 games played) and fellow strugglers Leamington and Alfreton who have played only 26.

• Our away form, which is arguably more concerning than our impending fixture pile-up. From our 19 remaining league fixtures, 11 are away compared to 8 at home, starting with a trip to league leaders South Shields on Saturday. Macclesfield have won only 4 of 12 games on their travels (3 draws, 5 defeats), which equates a PPG of just 1.25 on the road. For every outstanding home win against Radcliffe and Kidderminster, we’ve seen some poor performances against Chester and Peterborough away from the Leasing.com stadium.

Whilst we have the second best record at home in the NLN, we currently have the 16^th poorest away – just 15 points from 12 matches. Offensively we have scored 18 goals on the road – the 13^th best in the division, however 7 goals in our last two away fixtures against Peterborough and Worksop are genuine causes for optimism that we have abandoned our previously safety-first approach.

But…. perhaps unsurprisingly we’re conceding more goals away too – 13% more in our last 8 games, equating to an average of 1.63 goals per game compared to 1.44.

Worryingly, nine of our remaining 11 away games are against sides currently occupying 12^th and higher in the league. In addition to South Shields, the Silkmen must travel to Merthyr (3^rd), Radcliffe (5^th), Darlington (6^th) and in-form Telford (8^th), not to mention an Easter local derby against Buxton (11^th).

Making the play-offs in one thing, but winning them is entirely different. Due to the National League’s promotion format, teams finishing between 2^nd and 7^th contest the play-offs. Round one consists of two eliminators as 4^th play 7^th (eliminator A) and 5^th vs 6^th (eliminator B) with the highest finishing teams securing home advantage.

The winners of eliminators A and B then must play the second and third placed teams away from home in the semi-final, before contesting the play-off final if they are successful.

If the Silkmen finish lower than fourth in the league (which is entirely conceivable), then we could have to win three consecutive away games to achieve promotion to the National League. A tall order for any team, but particularly for Rooney’s men who have flattered to deceive away. But let’s cross this bridge if we get to it!

• Whilst the spotlight is on Macc, competition for the final play-off positions will be fierce. AFC Telford are top of the form table based on the last 8 games having accumulated 21 points. Whilst Scarborough, Marine and Buxton are also expected to be in the mix and the Silkmen must play all four of these teams away.

Let’s try and enjoy the ride

Perspective and patience will be needed over the next three months. The criticism John Rooney and his players receive when they fall short of the standards we believe they are capable of isn’t unusual – the Fylde, Chester and Peterborough defeats being obvious examples. Some criticisms have been valid, whilst others have been reactionary. Due to the realities of modern football, every win is “momentum”, whilst every defeat sometimes leads to a “meltdown” online.

Defeats hurt, but are to be expected in the topsy-turvy waters of the National League North. After the euphoria of last night’s win, it’s worth reflecting that Rooney has been thrust behind the wheel of a distressed ship not once, but twice this season following Robbie Savage’s departure and the tragic death of Ethan McLeod.

The rookie manager is emerging with credit, leading us into play-off contention in the league and into the money-spinning heights of the fourth round of the FA Cup whilst learning on the job.

Of course, things can turn quickly in either direction. Afterall, the tame loss to Chester left us in 15^th place, six points off the play-offs. Its been some turnaround since then.

Before this turns into late-night, beer-fuelled football philosophising, let’s remember where we’ve come from – competing at Step 2 for the first time in Macclesfield FC’s history, vying for the play-offs despite having lost four players from last season’s title-winning squad, not to mention losing our all-time top-scorer to a season-ending injury and a fixture schedule which would derail most teams. And all this whilst the players and staff come to terms with the loss of one of their colleagues.

Rooney and his players are not just trying to climb a hill – metaphorically they’re halfway up Buxton Road after consuming too many in Spoons. We’ve got 19 league games to go, they’ll be lots of twists and turns along the way and then…. who knows?

Whatever happens between now and the end of the season, let’s try and enjoy the ride.