Marine stats analysis & key talking points
The contrast between Macc’s defence & midfield
Macclesfield’s season got off to the perfect start with a hard-fought victory over Marine, with Fin Shrimpton’s strike 20-minutes from time enough to settle a keenly contested battle in draining temperatures.
Regular readers will know that I published a match report soon atter the final whistle which captured my immediate thoughts. However, this article will conduct a deep-dive into the game’s key talking points and various data statistics. Some of the stats have surprised me.
We’ll start with the talking points before attempting to make sense of the statistical elements.
Key talking points:
Should Marine’s disallowed goal have stood?
The home side had the ball in the net after just a couple of minutes, but the referee immediately blew to signal that Charlie Jolley had manhandled Christian Dibble to the deck in the build-up. Frustratingly, neither Marine’s or Macclesfield’s match highlights showed the incident so we’ll have to assume there was nothing contentious about the decision.
It happened at the opposite end to where 600+ Silkmen fans were assembled, with visibility further impacted by the blazing sunshine. One partisan Marine supporter did comment on X: “Connor’s disallowed goal early on was harsh, as Dibble said to a few fans behind the goal ‘I was lucky to get away with that.’”
Maybe keep your opinions to yourself Dibbs going forward? ;-)
Should Macc have had a penalty?
Supporters stood near me were convinced the Silkmen should have been awarded a penalty in a dramatic 90-second spell which almost saw Marine score at the other end. Elliot Osborne made a nuisance of himself and the ball ricocheted into the path of Mariners’ defender Drysdale whose arm did connect with the ball.
It’s difficult to tell from the grainy YouTube footage, but looking at the positioning of Drysdale’s arm in the still above it does seem to be elevated unnaturally and there’s no doubt he makes contact with the ball. So for my money, I’m inclined to agree that Macclesfield were unlucky not to be awarded a spot kick.
Dibble to the rescue
After a testing opening to the game, Macclesfield enjoyed a spell of pressure but almost came unstuck. Adan George and Luke Duffy both had attempts blocked when in advanced positions, the loose ball broke to George Wilson who couldn’t make his mind up.
The new midfield signing from Flyde turned into trouble, ended up being pick-pocketed and suddenly we were in danger.
Former Silkmen trialist Jordan Hodkin had the run on both Sam Heathcote and Cameron Borthwick-Jackson approximately 35-40 yards from goal. Christian Dibble came racing off his line which influenced Hodkin to try a chipped effort, but the ball sailed comfortably wide.
Dibble emerged with credit for his rapid response which seemed to panic the inexperienced striker who would have been better trying to round the keeper and steer the ball into the empty net. Goalkeepers are paid to make big decisions in the blink of an eye – on another day maybe Dibble ends up with egg on his face for bolting too early, but credit where it’s due, his quick thinking ultimately paid off.
The Silkmen’s new number one was a calming influence throughout the afternoon, making four saves in total. Notably, Dibble saved a headed effort at the second attempt from a corner before half-time, then produced an excellent sprawling save to divert Fin Sinclair-Smith’s drive around the post in what was a stellar debut from the renowned keeper.
Was Shrimpton’s effort over the line?
Match-winner Fin Shrimpton was at the heart of everything good (and occasionally bad!) from a Macclesfield perspective. His curling effort after a nicely crafted eight-pass move struck the bar and bounced down before Marine eventually cleared their lines.
Was it over the line? The footage, which wasn’t the best, is inconclusive. I’ve slowed it down and zoomed in on numerous occasions but trying to locate the proximity of the ball in relation to white shirts is virtually impossible. Unlike Macc’s penalty shout which wasn’t given, my gut feeling is that the officials made the right call on this particular incident.
Fortunately, it didn’t matter as Fin eventually bagged the winner midway through the second half. More on his performance further down.
Data analysis:
Defences on top
Despite the sweltering conditions, both teams went at it hammer-and-tongue although ultimately both team’s defences came out on top.
Of the 35 attempts on goal (Marine 18, Macc 17), just 5 were on target, and in the Silkmen’s case Shrimpton’s winner was our only effort on target in the entire game. Marine’s backline performed heroically, blocking 10 of our 17 shots. But the Silkmen’s rearguard were also mightily impressive, blocking 7 Marine attempts.
I scored Cameron Borthwick-Jackson just 5 out of 10 for what I felt was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance and to an extent I still stand by that view. He looked sluggish and appears to be carrying extra weight after missing part of pre-season, his short passes were often underhit which put his teammates in trouble on various occasions in the first half. Whilst on other occasions he resorted to aimlessly pumping long balls forward which turned over possession.
Having said that (and I’ll concede I did CBJ a disservice), statistically he was the best defender on the pitch. Marine chucked the kitchen sink at us early on and the Silkmen’s defence magnificently stood firm. Borthwick-Jackson led the charge with 22 defensive contributions (7 interceptions, 14 clearances, 1 blocked shot) and centre back partner Sam Heathcote also impressed with 14 defensive contributions.
But with the ball at their feet, Cameron and Sam struggled with Marine’s players snapping at their heels. CBJ’s passing accuracy of 75% was low by his high standards and he completed only 36% of his long passes, compared to 44% from Heathcote.
We were under the cosh at times, so it’s particularly pleasing to see how well John Rooney’s new full-back signings Ammar Dyer and Lincoln McFayden coped in the lion’s den.
Dyer in particular was a revelation. 12 defensive contributions, whilst he also won 11 out of his 14 ground duels and both his aerial duels. He was also key to getting us up the pitch – successfully completing 3 out of 3 dribbles and he had 2 shots blocked, not to mention making some excellent forays into the final third and it was Dyer who won the corner which led to Shrimpton’s firing us into the lead.
McFayden also defended soundly, although he was more wasteful in possession. Lincoln made 10 defensive contributions, and won 7 of his 9 ground and aerial duels. He showed less ambition than Dyer going forward, however was resolute in denying Marine opportunities down the right flank.
Sloppy midfield
We’ve highlighted how well Christian Dibble and the back four played which was critical to earning the Silkmen an opening day win. They were not helped though by the sloppiness of Elliot Osborne, George Wilson and even match-winner Fin Shrimpton on occasions though.
I really like Osborne when he’s on the ball – he’s an intelligent and accurate passer who was involved in our best attacking moves. It was Ozzy who picked out the run of Dyer which forced the corner ultimately resulting in Shrimpton scoring from. But a lack of mobility and strength off the ball is a concern in games where we can’t automatically dictate the pattern of play, particularly away from home.
Marine’s McAleny drifted past Osborne and curled fractionally wide on 9 minutes. Then midway through the second half, a careless sideways pass from Osborne put the home side into the ascendency which ultimately saw Dibble come to our rescue with a sprawling save. Osborne’s primary job was to be a screening player in front of the back four. He did some things well – 82% passing accuracy and won 5 out of 6 ground duels, but made only 2 defensive contributions beyond that.
I’m not sure whether Osborne and George Wilson are too similar to be effective in tandem, however with Paul Dawson and Josh Kay suspended for 6 and 9 more league games respectively, John Rooney is light on options in the middle of the park. Wilson was slightly more effective at doing the dirty work but still conceded possession on 17 occasions, which almost proved calamitous when Jordan Hodkin was sent clear as we analysed above.
And while Fin Shrimpton deservedly took the man-of-the-match accolade, it’s important that we scrutinise his performance as a whole. At 54%, he had the poorest passing completion of any Silkmen player and unsurprisingly given that stat no one in a blue shirt turned the ball over more than Shrimpton (21 times).
It’s fair to say we saw the best and worse of Shrimpton on Saturday. His loose pass on the stroke of half-time presented a good opportunity to Marine’s Darby which he ought to have done better with. After a shaky start, Shrimpton gradually stamped his authority on the game. He hit the post with an audacious effort, produced a fine finish for his goal and made a vital interception to deflect a Marine shot over the bar. In possession Shrimpton was slack, but out of it he defended effectively – 9 defensive contributions, in addition to making 2 key passes which led to shots from Macclesfield players.
Rooney’s tactical tweak stems the tide
We lined up in a 4-3-3 formation but could barely string a pass together in the opening ten minutes as Marine dominated territorially. Gradually we gained a foothold and started to dictate possession after about half an hour.
Rooney elected to go to 4-2-3-1 with Osborne and Wilson acting as holding midfielders in front of the defence. Luke Duffy and Jonathan Ustabasi dropped back from being more conventional attacking wingers to more defensively-minded wide midfielders and played important parts in helping Macc to eventually get a grip of the game. Shrimpton moved into the attacking midfield / ‘number 10’ position, leaving Adan George as the lone striker.
The tactical switch worked, with only Marine presented opportunities by the occasional sloppy play of our midfielders. Overall, Macc enjoyed 59% possession, made more passes (375 v 237) with greater accuracy (71% to 57%). The whole team defended resolutely, evidenced by Macclesfield making 31 interceptions compared to 19 from Marine.
More to come from Adan George?
Adan George was starved of possession for long periods during this frenetic encounter – just 33 touches of the ball. But when the striker did have it, he looked a threat. George’s well-struck shot in the first half was diverted away from goal by an excellent block from Marine’s Drysdale. Adan also played a delightful ball into the path of Ammar Dyer whose pull-back to Duffy saw him denied by more last ditch defending from Marine.
Rooney’s switch to a 4-2-3-1 line-up did see George drift out of the game for long periods. He did eventually come to life midway through during the second half. It was George’s deft lay-off which led to a presentable opportunity to Ustabasi which the winger blazed over the bar. Adan also attempted a decent long-range strike in the closing stages.
I liked the look of George when he ran the channels, he’s quick and an intelligent passer. If we can provide him with decent service I think he’ll regularly hit the back of the net and contribute assists on top.
Did we deserve the three points?
Few people would have grumbled had the points been shared. But on balance, despite only having one shot on target Macc just about deserved it. We gradually dominated possession and created the better openings (2.14 expected goals vs 1.36), only to be denied by some dogged defending by Marine.
We can and must play better, but in the end found a way to win against stubborn opponents in sapping conditions on a bone-dry pitch.