Morpeth preview / Matlock recap
Silkmen to win the title tomorrow?
Morpeth preview / Matlock recap
My father’s favourite saying has always stuck with me: “He who hesitates loses”. In essence it means: take every opportunity when you can, as soon as you can. If it fails, you’ve lost nothing. But if you don’t seize the opportunity, you could miss out.
There are parallels between this phrase and the manner in which Macclesfield have approached the Northern Premier League (NPL) this season. No stone unturned, nothing left to chance, every opportunity seized. And now the finishing line is truly in sight for this magnificent squad.
Far be it from me to tell you how to spend your hard-earned money (unless you bailed from Ian Armitt’s coach onto the official club coach to save a fiver). But if you’re passing on going to Morpeth because you think Macc will gain promotion against Bamber Bridge next week, you might want to think again…
A few dominoes need to fall in place, but gut feeling tells me this is it. The relentless drive of Robbie Savage, his coaching staff and players indicates that the Silkmen are going to clinch the NPL title away at Morpeth, a mere 186 miles away from SK11. Don’t hesitate and miss out, get yourself to Craik Park, if you can.
The probability of winning promotion this weekend
We’re now left with a three-horse race between Macc, Worksop and Guiseley for automatic promotion to the National League North. Let’s take a look at the facts, and the most likely scenarios, as we stand:
Macc will guarantee promotion if they reach 90 points, that’s five more points from their remaining eight games. The most Worksop and Guiseley can reach is 89 and 86 respectively
89 points is likely to be sufficient to see the Silkmen over the line, given currently their +56 goal difference compared to Worksop’s +35.
IF Macc beat Morpeth, Worksop MUST beat Hyde at home to extend the race to another week.
Current NPL form guide (last six fixtures)
1st Worksop 18pts
2nd Macclesfield 16pts
3rd Morpeth 13pts
5th Hyde 11pts
14th Guiseley 6pts
It’s safe to effectively discount Guiseley. They’ll need to win all their remaining matches and hope Macc lose all theirs. So how is Morpeth vs Macclesfield and Worksop vs Hyde likely to pan out?
Morpeth are on a great run. Four wins from their last five have catapulted them to seventh in the table, five points behind Stockton who occupy the final play-off place. But on closer scrutiny, ‘The Highwaymen’s’ form has been largely built on their impressive away record which is only behind Worksop and the Silkmen for the most points accumulated on the road.
At home it’s a different story. Morpeth have only won five of their 17 matches at Craik Park (six draws, six losses), scoring just 21 goals and conceding 24, putting them 16thout of 22 in the ‘home form’ table. The hosts don’t concede many, but don’t find the net regularly either with just 47 goals registered in the league so far.
Morpeth do, however, have some dangermen to look out for. 20-year-old striker Nic Bollado, released by Stockport, has bagged 11 goals and veteran frontman Jack Foalle has ten. While Sam Hodgson, who recently joined Morpeth on loan from Blyth, has been on the scoresheet in each of his last four games. Hodgson enjoyed a similarly productive spell for ‘Peth last season, registering 18 goals in 43 matches when on loan from South Shields – his parent club at the time.
And lest we forget, Morpeth defeated Macc 2-0 on their own turf last season, before losing the return fixture 3-0 at the Leasing.com stadium. The Highwaymen will be a handful tomorrow, but there’s no reason to believe that the Silkmen will not come away with a result in what could be a tight, low-scoring game, not dissimilar to our previous trips to the North East this season where we narrowly saw off Stockton 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Hebburn.
Morpeth vs Macclesfield – betting odds
I’m going to have a cheeky flutter on Macc winning 1-0 or 2-1 tomorrow, best priced at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively with betway.
The half-time ‘draw’ / full-time Macclesfield’ scenario also appears to have value at 15/4 with betway. While if you’re of the opinion that it’s going to be a low-scoring game, BETFRED are offering 13/8 on under 2.5 goals. The Silkmen have yet to have a 0-0 this season, but if you’re feeling pessimistic you can get 14/1 from betway on the match finishing goalless.
Will Worksop falter?
Worksop have recovered from their mid-season blip and are in scintillating form. Six league wins on the spin, 20 goals scored, including impressive away triumphs over Morpeth away (2-0) and Hebburn (3-2), and a 2-0 victory over Ashton at home. You certainly wouldn’t want to land The Tigers in the play-offs right now!
The Tigers vs The Tigers
But all good things must come to an end, and Hyde should pose a sterner test for Worksop tomorrow. Hyde, also nicknamed The Tigers, are on the up again after a dreadful slump which saw them spiral down the table. They currently sit ninth, eight points outside the play-offs and simply must beat Worksop to retain any outside hope of gatecrashing the top five. Hyde have only lost one of their last six, however generally their away form has let them down at times this season (won 5, drawn 7, lost 5).
Hyde are certainly capable of getting a result on their travels though, as evidenced by them drawing with the Silkmen back in August, and more recently beating Hebburn and drawing at Ashton. And remember, Worksop have practically no margin for error – if they drop points against Hyde, the title race could almost officially be over providing the Silkmen do the business tomorrow.
And that’s my prediction. Hyde to draw at Worksop, Macc to win at Morpeth = THE SILKMEN ARE GOING UP!!!
Matlock recap – why the stats look kinder on reflection
The Silkmen received mixed reviews following their 1-0 win over struggling Matlock a fortnight ago, thanks to D’Mani Mellor’s fine run and composed finish. For sure, they made hard work of it in the end, even enjoying a slice of fortune when Matlock headed over the bar from six-yards out at the death which would have seen them earn an ill-deserved share of the spoils.
But, overall, Macc were good value for their latest win, and the match stats support this view – just like they did when the Silkmen dominated Basford a few weeks ago yet had to settle for another 1-0 victory.
Match stats – Macc 1 Matlock 0
Goal attempts: Macc 16 (8 on target), Matlock 7 (2 on target)
Corners: Macc 11, Matlock 3
18-yard line entries (either inside or level with the area): Macc 56, Matlock 25
Player ratings
Dearnley 7 – clean sheet number 18 for magnificent Max this season. He was rarely troubled as Matlock seldom ventured forward, but he did well under pressure to claim a couple of crosses.
Pemberton 8 – was menacing down the right, particularly in the first half when he linked play beautifully with Mendy, Rooney and Etaluku. Earned a bollocking from Savage when conceding a needless free-kick on the touchline, not dissimilar to the one he conceded away at FC United which led to them equalizing. Almost had an assist in the second half, but Elliott’s side-footed shot was deflected wide.
Fensome 6.5 – not as dominant as in recent games. Got underneath a header in the second half which presented a chance to Matlock, but the attacker’s lob failed to get enough height and power to beat Dearnley. Apart from that he was steady against a physical opposition striker.
Menayese 6 – has overseen six wins in seven starts (one draw) since joining the Silkmen, but this was his least commanding performance. Got outmuscled on a couple of occasions, the latter which saw Matlock blaze wide from a good position, and he also got done for pace once.
Kengni 7.5 – impressive at both ends of the pitch, without offering the same attacking threat that Pemberton did down the right. Makes good interceptions, but occasionally his control lets him down when attempting to take advantage. Had one ambitious 30-yard strike which sailed over.
Mendy 8.5 – ran the show in the first half and was everywhere. Broke up play in midfield, drove forward and linked up well down the right flank. Almost broke his goalscoring duck for the season, but his goalbound shot was brilliantly blocked. Seemed content to take a back seat to Dawson in the second half and allowed the club skipper to largely dictate play when he came off the bench.
Rooney 7.5 – shone with Mendy in central midfield during the first half, but was guilty of a glaring miss when skying Etaluku’s cutback from 12 yards out. Subbed in injury time for Danny Whitehead.
Etaluku 7.5 – improved as the game wore on. Laid a perfect chance on a plate for Rooney who couldn’t convert in the first half, and also played a lovely, weighted pass into Pemberton who set-up Elliott for another excellent opening after the break. Does favour cutting inside when playing on the right wing, however seems more willing to use his pace and drive to the byline when operating on the left. Withdrawn for Heathcote after 70 minutes.
Mellor 8 – really well taken goal, picking up Elliott’s layoff and embarking on a 30-yard run into the box before finishing with aplomb with a dinked effort which proved the difference between the two sides. 18 goals for the season now and his composure in the box is improving.
Duffy 7 – not fully fit, but managed 56 minutes until he was replaced by Dawson. Embarked on a lovely jinking run – similar to the one which earned a penalty at Rylands – but this time got a shot away which was brilliantly saved by the Matlock keeper.
Elliott 7.5 - a rare game without a goal, but not for the want of trying. Did enough to hold the ball up which broke to Mellor for the goal, and his curling shot on the turn was spectacularly tipped over the bar by the Matlock keeper. Might have done better with Pemberton’s cross in the second half, but his side-footed effort looked goalbound until it was deflected wide. Remains on 26 league goals (32 in total) and you’d still bet on him to end up on 30 between now and the end of the season.
Substitutes:
Dawson 8 – the captain is chomping at the bit to get back in the starting line-up and delivered another strong cameo when being introduced for Duffy. Immediately took control of midfield, spraying some long, accurate balls to Pemberton and Etaluku out wide. May have done just enough to put off the Matlock player who headed over from point-black range late on.
Heathcote 6 – replaced Etaluku with 20 minutes to go as Savage elected to play a back three.
Lee – no rating, came on for Kengni after 81 minutes.
Whitehead – no rating, entered the field for Rooney in stoppage time