National League North season predictions - Part 1
Which teams are going down?
The eve of the season is a time for hope. There is plenty amongst some teams in this year’s National League North, but for others it’s a different story.
Who will be vying for automatic promotion, are there any surprise packages who could gatecrash the play-offs, and which supporters will be fearing a relegation battle? And, more importantly, where will the Silkmen finish as they bid for a fourth promotion in five years?
In part 1 of my bumper National League North season preview, I predict which teams will finish between 24thand 13th place. Which teams are most likely to go down, and who could get dragged into an unexpected dogfight at the bottom? Read on to find out…
Oxford City (relegated) – 24th
Last season: 19th
Key-ins: Sam Lewis, DJ Sturridge
Key-outs: Jayden Carbon, Phil Croker, Cole Kpekawa
Player to watch: Josh Parker
Relegated from the National League in 2023-24 with a dismal 33 points from 36 games, Oxford City equally struggled when dropping back down to Step 2 last season, finishing 19th in the National League North. Although The Hoops ended up 14 points above the drop zone on 53 points that doesn’t tell the full story. All four relegated sides from the NLN last season were very poor, with only Needham Market in 21st place offering any resistance against the drop.
Remarkably, Oxford accumulated 29 of their 53 points against teams who finished in the bottom 7, doing the double over Radcliffe, Rushall, Warrington and Farsley Celtic, whilst also taking three points from Needham Market on home soil. Those successes went a long way to keeping The Hoops clear of danger when you consider that they only gained 24 points from their 34 other matches against sides positioned 17th and above in the table – a frightening statistic for Oxford fans.
The newly promoted sides coming up to the NLN this season all look to be competitive, so it’s highly unlikely that Oxford will take as many points off the bottom sides this campaign. And to compound matters for them, their home-grown young prospects Jayden Carbon (forward, Middlesbrough) and Phil Croker (centre back, Crewe) have been snapped up by EFL clubs.
The Hoops will need all the experience of veteran striker Josh Parker and winger Alfie Potter if they’re going to beat the drop.
Leamington (relegated) – 23rd
Last season: 16th
Key-ins: Max Ram, Eddie Brearey
Key-outs: Callum Hawkins, Henry Landers, George Ward
Player to watch: Dan Meredith
Promoted Leamington finished a creditable 16th in the NLN last season, thanks largely to their home form which produced 12 wins and 5 draws from 23 games on their bobbly pitch – the ninth best home record in the league. It was the Brakes’ away form though which let them down - just three wins and 15 defeats which was the third worst in the NLN.
Worryingly, the rot started to set in for the Warwickshire-based side in January when they lost star striker Callum Stewart to the then League One side Shrewsbury. At the time, the 23-year-old Stewart was the joint top scorer in the NLN with 14 goals from 23 games. Since Stewart’s departure it’s been downhill even since for Leamington, who finished last season with only 1 win in 11 and 7 of those were defeats.
The Brakes have also lost a trio of key players over the summer in excellent keeper Callum Hawkins, winger and chief creator Henry Landers and towering centre back George Ward who has gone to Buxton. Their replacements, on paper, don’t seem as competent, although centre half Max Ram has gained good experience for a young centre half in Scotland and goalkeeping prospect Eddie Brearey from Oxford United will hope to fill Hawkins’ boots.
The Brakes have hung onto marauding right back and long throw merchant, Dan Meredith who epitomises their fighting spirit. But this looks like being a long, hard season for Leamington.
Alfreton Town (relegated) – 22nd
Last season: 14th
Key-ins: Siya Ligendza
Key-outs: Liam Waldock, Sam Osborne
Player to watch: Lewis Salmon
Its been a summer of change for Alfreton after longstanding chairman Wayne Bradley stepped down after over 25 years at the helm. In an unlikely turn of events, the club has been taken over by new American owners with 27-year-old Puerto Rico-based American businessman William Rush appointed as Alfreton’s new chairman. Billy Heath will continue in his role as manager where he has been in charge since 2018.
Last season was a disappointing one for the Derbyshire side. After being a point outside the play-offs at the end of December, Alfreton’s form fell off a cliff, culminating in them losing 10 of their next 12 games in a disastrous run which saw them win only 2 from 18 matches. Billy Heath did eventually curb the slide, ending the season 8 unbeaten (3 wins) which saw Alfreton climb to 14th in the table – a disappointing return for a club that finished fifth in the National League North consecutively in the two seasons prior.
Incomings and outgoings have been light so far. Key midfielder Liam Waldock turned down a new contract and has joined National League side Boston United. Alfreton have also surprisingly allowed fellow midfielder Sam Osborne to join fellow NLN team Hereford, however 12-goal top-scorer Lewis Salmon remains.
So far, Alfreton’s only new significant arrival is forward Siya Ligendza from National League South side Eastbourne. Ligendza, a former Cardiff City youngster, is well regarded but his goal return of 1 in 20 appearances (mainly off the bench) for Eastbourne doesn’t suggest he’s going to set the world alight. Similarly tall striker Ben Beresford, signed from Kidderminster Harriers this week, was only on the fringes of the Harriers’ squad.
With new owners now in place, Alfreton were expected to get busy in the transfer market but ominously there has been precious few incomings thus far. It remains to be seen what knowledge, if any, new chairman William Rush has of the English non-league system and how competent he is to run a football club at just 27 years-old.
This could be an exciting new era or an accident waiting to happen. Either way, this looks like being a season of transition on and off the pitch for Alfreton. It’s difficult to make a case for them making a play-off push, and if Billy Heath was to leave it’s conceivable that they could really struggle at the wrong end of the table, which right now seems much more likely.
AFC Telford (relegated) – 21st
Last season: 3rd in the Southern League Central, promoted via the play-offs
Key-ins: Alex Fletcher, Charlie Williams, Adan George
Key-outs: Ellis Myles
Player to watch: Matty Stenson
Following their relegation in 2023, AFC Telford returned to the National League North at the second attempt with a 4-2 comeback victory over Kettering in the Southern League Central’s play-off final. In the same play-off final 12 months ago, ‘The Bucks’ lost to Leamington.
Beating Kettering to seal promotion was Telford’s first away victory since January, but the club’s success was well deserved after ending the season 18 games unbeaten. The well-supported Shropshire club will be eager to kick-on now after typically struggling in the NLN in recent years.
They have been given a major boost by 32-goal top scorer Matty Stenson committing his future to the club despite him receiving interest from elsewhere. Manager Kevin Wilkin has also retained the nucleus of last season’s squad, including defender / midfielder Jordan Piggott who has made over 100 appearances for Telford across four seasons and left back Jordan Cranston who is a dead-ball specialist
So far, Telford have made a trio of new midfield signings from Step 3 clubs – Charlie Williams (Stratford Town, ex Burton Albion), Jamie Meddows (Bromsgrove Sporting) and Alex Fletcher (Tamworth). Fletcher looks the pick of the bunch having arrived from Step 1 Tamworth and played on loan for the eventually relegated Rushall Olympic in the NLN last season. They have also acquired 23-year-old forward Adan George from Halifax who scored 3 goals in 7 games in a previous loan in the NLN with Rushall Olympic.
Telford finished third in the Southern League – Premier Central last season with a relatively modest points total of 74 from 42 games, 8 points behind title-winners Bedford Town who will also play in the NLN this season. With four relegation places, the Bucks could face a battle to beat the drop and Matty Stenson’s goals will be pivotal to their survival chances, if he isn’t poached elsewhere.
Scarborough – 20th
Last season: 13th
Key-ins: Rio Allan
Key-outs: None
Player to watch: Dom Tear
It’s been a summer of turmoil for Scarbrough Athletic. Longstanding damage to the Seadogs’ pitch means that they must play their home games at neighbours Bridlington Town 17 miles away this season. Whilst North Yorkshire Council has committed circa £3 million for repair works which should enable Scarborough to return to their Sports Village home for the 2026-27 season, the short-term impact could be hugely damaging to the club.
Scarborough chairman Trevor Bull has been working on a financial plan to bridge the club’s shortfall from missing out on matchday revenue streams including food and drink sales, hospitality packages, shop sales and an expected drop in attendance.
The upshot is that the Seadogs and manager Jonathan Greening have very little room for manoeuvre to refresh the playing squad which finished 13th in the NLN last season. Greening has done a fine job and Scarborough have kept most of last season’s squad intact, but you do worry that they might struggle without any reinforcements coming in if they suffer injuries or patchy form.
Their only signing of note is an eyecatching one in forward Rio Allan, who scored 39 goals in all competitions for step 4 side Hallam FC last campaign. Other than that it’s largely as you were for the Seadogs. They’ll hope that their promising attacking talent Harry Green (7 goals), Luca Colville (5 goals) and Dom Tear (11 goals) will again score enough goals to keep their heads above water. In fact, it’s surprising that the trio haven’t moved on which has been a big boost for the club.
But should Scarborough’s finances come under further strain, their best assets may need to be sacrificed. The Seadogs, on paper, are far better than relegation candidates. However, with everything conspiring against them off the pitch it’s not difficult to make a case for them battling against the drop this season.
Worksop Town – 19th
Last season: 2nd in the Northern Premier League, promoted via the play-offs
Key-ins: Luke Waterfall, Lewis Whitham
Key-outs: Luke Hall
Player to watch: Aleksandrs Starchenko
Macclesfield’s old friends Worksop Town join the Silkmen in the NLN after triumphing in the Northern Premier League play-offs by seeing off Ashton and the re-instated Guiseley in the final after Stockton were disqualified for fielding an ineligible player. Tipped to push Macc all the way at the start of the season, the Tigers found Robbie Savage’s men too hot to handle and hit a sticky patch of form halfway through the season.
Worksop recovered well though and deservedly went up after finishing in second place on 83 points with a +45 goal difference, albeit 26 points behind the Silkmen which highlighted the difference in squad depth between the two sides.
There’s an argument to say that the physicality of the NLN may actually suit the Tigers better. Top scorer Liam Hughes is a real handful, as are fellow strikers Jordan Burrow and Aaron Martin who have vast experience of the NLN. Worksop have retained star midfielder Aleksandrs Starchenko, but Luke Hall who also registered double figures in goals last season has been snapped up by National League Woking.
Worksop have added steel at the back with veteran centre half Luke Waterfall joining from Hartlepool and Dylan Cogill from Gainsborough. Pacey winger Lewis Whitham from Guisley also looks like a good addition, if he can stay fit.
The Tigers haven’t been flashy in the transfer market, but do appear to have been effective. And having retained the majority of last season’s promotion squad, they have a fighting chance of staying up.
Merthyr Town – 18th
Last season: Promoted as champions of Southern Premier League South
Key-ins: Lewys Twamley
Key-outs: Kane Simpson
Player to watch: Ricardo Rees
Merthyr Town clinched the Southern Premier League South title and promotion to the NLN by holding off a strong challenge from AFC Totton. The Welsh side’s impressive 91 points from 42 league games would have taken them past the 100 point barrier had they had the chance to replicate this over a 46-game season.
The Martyrs’ success came just three months after the fan-owned club turned down a lucrative offer to join Wales’ Cymru Premier division, instead preferring to pursue their ambitions of becoming an English Football League club. The National League’s decision to place Merthyr in the NLN rather than the National League South won’t help their cause though given they will face some punishing away trips totalling several hundred miles. The Martyrs’ formal appeal to play in the NLS was subsequently rejected.
But roared on by an expected home backing of around 3,000 supporters will make Merthyr difficult opposition who may be the surprise package of the NLN. The Martyrs have hung on to 33-goal top scorer Ricardo Rees, although fellow forward Kane Simpson was unable to agree terms and has joined Taunton. Lewys Twamley, who reunited with the club on loan after previously joining Yeovil, has now signed for Merthyr on a permanent deal
Other than that, I’m not going to pretend I know much about the Welsh side’s squad, which has an average age of just 25. But given there’s been little turnover in personnel in the summer, and how impressively they won the Southern Premier League South last season, the smart money is on them surviving comfortably in the NLN.
Southport – 17th
Last season: 18th
Key-ins: Mo Touray, Luke Tabone, Jordan Slew
Key-outs: Jack Stafford, Keenan Quansah
Player to watch: Malakai McKenzie
Former Silkmen bosses Neil Danns and Mark Duffy have formed a new management team at Southport, who have also been taken over by new owners David Cunningham and Kieran Malone. Danns gets his chance following his two-year stint as assistant manager at Tranmere, whilst Duffy has been handed the assistant manager’s post at Southport after he was sacked as manager at both Macclesfield and Warrington Rylands.
It might be out with the old and in with the new for the Ports, but don’t expect them to be flexing their muscles in the transfer market after the new owners admitted in a statement: “the club currently faces significant financial difficulties and a need for substantial rebuilding both on and off the pitch.”
Danns’ recruitment looks like a mixed bag so far. Striker Mo Touray, once linked with Macclesfield, has joined after struggling to hold down a starting place at Chorley and will be partnered by the much-travelled EFL forward Jordan Slew in attack, once of Sheffield United. While at the back, Luke Tabone arrives from Haverfordwest in the Welsh Premier League to replace Keenan Quansah who left for Hereford.
Right winger Malakai McKenzie, poached from Step 4 Avro, is considered a talent and a player to keep an eye on, as might be central midfielder Dana De Oliveira who has been acquired from Warrington. But a lot of Southport’s signings feel like gambles on inexperienced youngsters, or players who are yet to establish themselves at Step 3, let alone Step 2.
Southport could be anything this season, but the tip is that they will gradually improve with Danns at the helm. The additions of McKenzie, Slew and Touray should boost their shot shy forward line who only registered 43 goals last season, which should be enough to see them clear of the relegation zone. This isn’t a confident pick, however.
Peterborough Sports – 16th
Last season: 12th
Key-ins: Sam Straughan-Brown, Shaq Coulthirst
Key-outs: Michael Gyasi, Will Van Lier
Player to watch: Peter Crook
For a small club with modest resources, Peterborough Sports’ 12th place finish in the NLN was an excellent achievement. They’ll struggle to build on this though having lost top scorer Michael Gyasi and midfield prospect Will Van Lier to title-chasing King’s Lynn Town. In addition, midfielder Hugh Alban-Jones’ decision to stop playing to focus on a coaching career at just 26 is another big loss for the Turbines.
The centre of the park is a key area to address for Peterborough and they’ve managed to re-sign Doncaster’s Sam Straughan-Brown on loan from Doncaster after the energetic 19-year-old impressed for them last season. Former Kettering duo Luca Miller and Sam McLintock also appear decent captures having performed well at Step 3 and narrowly missed out on promotion.
In contrast, in attack ex-Barnet and Maidstone striker Shaq Coulthirst may struggle to match Gyasi’s goals and assists stats. Full-back Josh Cavallo, who arrives from Adelaide United in Australia, is an interesting capture though.
The Sports’ numbers from last season had them down as a middle-of-the-road team punching above their weight and on paper they look weaker going into this campaign. At the back, joint player-manager Michael Gash is now 38 and responsible for guiding the team’s relatively experienced centre backs around him. But in keeper Peter Crook, Peterborough have one of the best shot-stoppers in the NLN who could be vital to them climbing the table.
Bedford Town – 15th
Last season: 1st in the Southern League Premier Division Central, promoted as champions
Key-ins: Tyrone Marsh, Chris Paul, Greg Taylor
Key-outs: Leon Lobjot, Ellis Myles
Player to watch: Ryan Blake
Bedford have defied the odds under manager Lee Bircham, winning back-to-back promotions to catapult them to Step 2 of the football pyramid. Last season’s achievement as champions of the Southern League Premier Central was all the more remarkable given the Eagles’ ambitions at the start of the campaign were simply to beat the drop!
After recovering from a 6-2 loss away to the eventually promoted Telford, Bedford went on a run of only one defeat in 14 to seal promotion. They owed a significant debt of gratitude to 28-goal top scorer Leon Lobjoit who agonisingly has left the club for personal reasons in the summer to sign for Step 3 Kettering – a clear sign how geography and travel commitments can impact a Southern-based team when they are allocated to play in the National League North, rather than the National League South. Losing Lobojoit is a major blow, however Bedford have retained Ryan Blake who notched 16 goals last season.
The Eagles also look to have made some astute signings in two veteran Bedford-born strikers - former Macclesfield Town promotion-winning player Tyrone Marsh and 33-year-old Shaun Jeffers, who was prolific in the National League South for St Albans City. Further experience at Step 2 has been added with midfielders Greg Taylor (ex-King’s Lynn and another Bedfordian!), Lewis Coyle (ex-Oxford City), sprinkled with the class of Chris Paul – formerly of Tottenham’s academy. In addition, new goalkeeping arrival Dan Wilks from St Ives was rated as one of the best shot-stoppers in the Southern League Premier Division Central.
The long away trips facing Bedford this season will undoubtedly be a hindrance rather than a help to their survival ambitions. But with the momentum from the last two seasons under Bircham fresh in the memory, combined with some shrewd new faces added to the squad, the Eagles are capable of staying up with something to spare.
Radcliffe FC – 14th
Last season: 20th
Key-ins: Jon Taylor, Callum McFadzean, Michael Afuye
Key-outs: Tunde Owolabi
Player to watch: Michael Afuye
A few non-league experts appear excited about Radcliffe’s prospects this season, but I’m not sure what the fuss is about. After pipping Macclesfield to the Northern Premier League title in 24-25, the club managed by ex-Salford duo Anthony Johnson and Bernard Morley finished one place above the NLN relegation zone.
Like fellow promoted club Marine, Radcliffe made a nightmare start and didn’t win a league game until their 11th match, ironically away at champions elect Brackley. But whereas Marine adapted, Radcliffe continued to struggle and only won 2 out of their last 10 league games.
There were occasions though when Radcliffe showed they can be resolute and capable of grinding out shock results, as evidenced by their aforementioned victory over Brackley and other wins over promoted Scunthorpe, Chorley and Buxton without conceding a goal. And yet ironically, only three teams in the NLN shipped more goals than the Greater Manchester club at a whopping 75.
Johnson and Morley have made some experienced signings. Winger Jon Taylor arrives from Salford, midfielder Dan Gardner from Oldham and full-back Callum McFadzean who is previously a National League promotion winner at Wrexham. McFadzean has been without a club for a year though after a lengthy injury setback, whilst Taylor and Gardner’s best days are behind them at 32 and 35 respectively. But arguably none of these signings will improve their leaky backline.
At the other end of the scale, Radcliffe have made a couple of promising captures. Striker Rico Clegg has signed for Boro after finishing as the NPL West Division’s top scorer with 20 goals in 39 appearances for Trafford, and flashy hot-and-cold winger Michael Afuye has been picked up after leaving Curzon.
If the new signings hit the ground running, and Radcliffe avoid a disastrous start like last season and tighten up at the back, they should do far better than 20th this time around. But a top half finish still looks a stretch based on their current squad.
Curzon Ashton – 13th
Last season: 8th
Key-ins: Callum Hawkins, Jack Stobbs, Joe Rodwell-Grant
Key-outs: Isaac Buckley-Ricketts, Stefan Mols, Isaac Sinclair
Player to watch: Alex Curran
If you think the Silkmen have had a tough summer, spare a thought for Curzon Ashton. The Nash have seen their manager Craig Mahon leave for AFC Fylde and they’ve also lost a trio of creative talent in Isaac Buckley-Ricketts to ourselves, Stefan Mols to Tamworth and Isaac Sinclair to Accrington which collectively are big boots to fill.
As per the Silkmen, Curzon decided to look internally to source their new manager and have appointed Mark Bradshaw to replace Mahon. Bradshaw knows the club inside out after holding various coaching posts at the Nash in the last decade and is seen as a safe pair of hands. But he’ll need to be much better than ‘safe’ if Curzon are to challenge anywhere near the play-offs this time around.
Last season the Nash were in play-off contention for almost the entirety of the campaign, and even briefly topped the league at one point. But just 3 wins in their final 10 games saw them slip outside the top 7. The Nash played some lovely possession based football yet often lacked end product, as evidenced by them only scoring 59 league goals. They seem unlikely to improve on this statistic with the new signings they’ve made so far – winger Jack Stobbs was out of favour at Buxton and forward Joe Rodwell-Grant, whilst offering promise, only registered two goals for relegated Warrington Town last season. Although attacking midfielder Alex Curran, signed from Macc in February, will be hoping to build on his promising 5 goals in 19 appearances after re-joining the club.
To be in with a shout, Curzon will have to repeat their excellent away form which was the second best in the league last season and remain tight defensively, which is realistic as they’ve retained the excellent Timi Sobowale and Marcus Posher at the back. Furthermore, goalkeeper Callum Hawkins signed from Leamington is an excellent replacement for Bobby Jones who has gone to Boston United in the National League. However, as we stand the Nash seem on course for a midtable finish this time around.
In Part 2 of my season preview tomorrow, I’ll predict which teams will win promotion, who will finish in the play-offs and, above all, where the super Silkmen will land!