The race for the play-offs - form guide & predictions

Will the Silkmen make the top 7?

What a proverbial rollercoaster the next six weeks between now and the end of the National League North season promise to be. After Saturday’s infuriating home loss to Chorley, the Silkmen showed tremendous spirit to trounce fellow play-off contenders Marine 4-2 to move up to the dizzy heights of fifth in the table. More detailed analysis on that brilliant performance to follow, I’ve run out of time today.

This edition of The Silkmen News will focus on the play-off picture itself which is constantly evolving. But it’s time to try and make sense of the unfolding drama.

How many points will be needed to make the play-offs this year?

In the last three seasons, 77, 75 and as low as 68 points have been sufficient to secure seventh place and the final play-off berth, equating to a high of 1.67 points-per-game (PPG) and a low of 1.47 PPG.

This year the NLN is ultra-competitive, literally any team can beat anyone and invariably does, which is likely to result in a lower points total to guarantee a play-off spot. Looking at current PPG totals, the form guide and the remaining fixtures of the play-off contenders, I estimate that between a low of 71 points and a high of 74 pointswill be enough to get over the line.

For context, Macclesfield currently have 58 points from 34 games, which equates to a PPG of 1.71. If we can maintain this for the next 12 remaining league games (starting with Curzon tomorrow), we’ll finish on 78 points, which should comfortably earn us a top seven finish. And perhaps even more crucially, this may be enough to earn us third, fourth or fifth place in the final table which will guarantee us home advantage in either the play-off quarter final (if we finish 4^th or 5^th), or the semi-final (if we finish 3^rd).

As a reminder, the play-off quarter-finals pit fourth vs seventh, and fifth vs sixth. The winners of those one-off ties play away at the teams who came second and third in the league in the semi-final, with the winners of those games meeting in the final. The highest ranked play-off team is granted home advantage. Last season’s NLN play-offs unfolded like this:

Quarter-finals

Chester (4^th) beat Buxton (7^th) 2-1 after extra-time

Chorley (5^th) beat King’s Lynn (6^th) 1-0

Semi-finals

Scunthorpe (2^nd) beat Chorley 4-1

Kidderminster (3^rd) lost 2-1 at home to Chester

Final

Scunthorpe (2^nd) beat Chester (4^th) 2-1 after extra-time and were promoted to the National League.

For now, let’s just focus on making the play-offs first and foremost! The league title and automatic promotion will be decided between South Shields and AFC Fylde, but everyone from third-placed Merthyr to 14^th placed Chorley (at a miracle!) still have an outside chance of making the play-offs. Realistically, the race for the top seven will be contested from Merthyr on 66 points (38 games) and Chester currently occupying tenth position (56 pts, 38 games).

What makes it so difficult (and fascinating!) to predict the final table, is because some teams have as many as 12 games remaining (Macclesfield and Marine), whilst Chester, Merthyr and Scarborough have only eight. The fixtures are coming thick and fast, with many teams playing twice a week between now and the end of the regular season on 25^th April. Injuries, suspensions, last-ditch new signings (and departures!) could have a huge influence on a team’s play-off destiny.

The contenders

Merthyr Town

Current standing: 3^rd, 66pts from 38 games

Run-in: 4 at home, 4 away

Form guide (last 6): 8^th place with 9pts

Comment: It would be a huge surprise if Merthyr didn’t make the play-offs, but don’t let their recent form guide fool you. Since losing prolific striker Ricardo Rees to Forest Green at the turn of the year, the Martyrs have effectively been in free-fall as they dropped out of the automatic promotion race.

To put this into perspective, on 1 January the Welsh side sat third on 50pts, four behind Fylde and six behind South Shields having played the same number of games. Merthyr’s 2026 league record reads: played 14, won 6, lost 7, drawn 1. They actually won their first three games of 2026, but since then have lost 7 out of 11, with two of their three wins coming against lowly Leamington and Bedford. As a consequence, they now sit 13 points behind Fylde and 15 behind South Shields.

It would take a major collapse for the Martyrs not to make the play-offs from here. However… the average PPG totals of their remaining opponents stands at 1.59, the highest of any of the current top ten teams in the table, which suggests Merthyr have the toughest run-in. From a Silkmen perspective, arguably you’d want Merthyr to scrape into the play-offs - based on their current form, and without Ricardo Rees, they would be very much outsiders to secure promotion.

Kidderminster Harriers

Current standing: 4^th, 65pts from 35 games

Run-in: 4 at home, 7 away

Form guide (last 6): 2^nd place with 14pts

Comment: The Harriers have bounced back well from a blip which saw them trounced 5-1 at the Leasing.comstadium and are now on a six-game unbeaten, winning their last three which has put them only a point behind Merthyr in third.

Kidderminster have endured a massive turnover of players over the course of this season which has impacted the quality of their performances and potency in front of goal under manager Adam Murray. But 4-0 triumphs over Marine and Peterborough Sports, combined with a 3-1 victory away at Buxton, suggests they’ve turned a corner and now look favourite to land third place in the table.

The Harriers face play-off chasing Chester at home next, followed by a run of five consecutive away fixtures which include difficult games against Radcliffe and Darlington, which could check their momentum. With a nine-point cushion currently to eighth placed Darlington, Kidderminster are almost guaranteed a play-off place.

Macclesfield FC

Current standing: 5^th, 58pts from 34 games

Run-in: 4 at home, 8 away

Form guide (last 6): 7th place with 10pts

Comment: The Silkmen climbed to fifth, their highest place of the season after an excellent 4-2 win at Marine on Tuesday night to bounce back from Saturday’s shock home defeat to Chorley. The Moss Rose has been a fortress for much of this campaign, however back-to-back defeats in front of our own fans against Chorley have Fylde have piled on the pressure for John Rooney’s men to pick up more points on the road which has been lacking.

After winning only three of their opening ten away fixtures, Macc have won three of their last five (one draw, one defeat), collecting an excellent return of seven points against fellow play-off hopefuls Scarborough (2-2), Darlington (2-1) and Marine (4-2). We’ll need to continue this trajectory given that eight of our remaining 12 fixtures are away, including testing trips to AFC Telford, Buxton, Merthyr, South Shields and Radcliffe on the final day.

A play-off position is in Macclesfield’s hands now after a strong turnaround in 2026 which has seen us win nine of 13 league games. Rooney’s men probably need another four or five victories from their remaining games to make certain – no easy feat considering our challenging run-in, alongside the backdrop of the sale of striker D’Mani Mellor and Josh Kay’s ban following his third sending off of the season. The Silkmen are trying to bring in reinforcements, which could make the difference between us finishing strongly in the play-offs or facing a nerve-jangling scrap for 7^th place.

Scarborough Athletic

Current standing: 6^th, 58pts from 38 games

Run-in: 4 at home, 4 away

Form guide (last 6): 10th place with 9pts

Comment: Whatever happens Scarborough have had a magnificent season to be in the play-off mix, given their financial challenges and that they’ve had to temporarily move from their own stadium and play their home fixtures at neighbours Bridlington Town’s ground 17 miles away. The Seadogs have been in and around the top seven for the majority of this campaign, showing resilience to recover from patchy runs of form.

Currently unbeaten in five, and statistically facing the easiest run-in of the current top ten, Scarborough are a live bet to make the play-offs despite having played more fixtures than most. Their remaining eight opponents have a combined PPG of just 1.26, although this stat is skewed given they have to play doomed Leamington and free-falling Bedford Town.

AFC Telford

Current standing: 7^th, 56pts from 37 games

Run-in: 5 at home, 4 away

Form guide (last 6): 11th place with 8pts

Comment: Like Macclesfield Telford have done exceptionally well to come up from Step 3, recover from a poor start and surge up the table after a string of fine wins, most notably an 8-0 annihilation away at Curzon. For the data geeks amongst us (it can’t just be me?), Telford are a good example of a team’s early results significantly failing to replicate their expected goals (xG) totals as The Bucks missed a host of presentable goalscoring chances.

But in striker Matt Stenson (16 goals) and attacking midfielder Remi Walker (14 goals), Telford are a handful going forward. They are going through a sticky patch though, just two wins in their last six, which also includes a damaging 2-1 loss to Leamington and a disappointing 0-0 at relegation-threatened Oxford.

With the Silkmen, Marine, Chester, Kidderminster and Darlington to play in their remaining games Telford will need to rally, and quickly, if their play-off ambitions are not to fizzle out.

The chasing pack

Darlington

Current standing: 8^th, 56pts from 36 games

Run-in: 6 at home, 4 away

Form guide (last 6): 9th place with 9pts

Comments: Darlington were flying – six wins in eight, but they’ve now lost their last three games against the Silkmen, Chester and Buxton which has seem them tumble out of the play-offs. But a couple of wins could quickly change that, and in fact only two points separate Macclesfield in fifth and Chester in tenth.

The Quakers have a far from ideal run-in, however, which includes a nightmare four-game spell against Kidderminster, Fylde, Scarborough and South Shields which could go a long way to determining their play-off fate. It could go down to the wire and Darlington’s current +13 goal difference is the best of any team outside of the top seven by some distance which may prove pivotal.

Radcliffe

Current standing: 9^th, 56pts from 37 games

Run-in: 4 at home, 5 away

Form guide (last 6): 14th place with 7pts

Comment: The wheels have been slowly coming off Radcliffe’s play-off charge since the turn of this year, after The Boro looked in pole position to secure a top seven place after thumping play-off rivals Merthyr (5-0), Kidderminster (5-1), Scarborough (3-0) and Darlington (3-1). But ultimately it’s all about how many points you acquire, not about who you beat to acquire them.

Without a win in four (three losses), combined with the loss of joint manager Anthony Johnson who has left to take over at Bury (though former joint boss Bernard Morley has been put in sole charge), has knocked the wind out of Radcliffe’s sails. They still have Kidderminster and back-to-back fixtures against Fylde and South Shields to play, not to mention the Silkmen at home on the final day.

Like Scarborough, Radcliffe have been a surprise package this season, but look set to run out of steam at the most crucial time.

Chester

Current standing: 10^th, 56pts from 38 games

Run-in: 4 at home, 4 away

Form guide (last 6): 1st place with 15pts

Comment: What a rock and roll season its been for Chester. A disastrous start, supporter calls for longstanding manager Calum McIntyre to step down, then an announcement that McIntyre would leave at the end of the season, only to subsequently leave his post with immediate effect on 28 February.

The period between the announcement of McIntyre’s impending departure and confirmed subsequent exit has seen Chester win six out of their last eight games, with interim boss Connell Rawlinson making it three victories out of three since taking the reins. This unlikely run of form has catapulted Chester into the play-off picture, but can they sustain it and gatecrash the top seven?

After Merthyr and Radcliffe, Chester statistically have the hardest run-in based on the combined PPG totals of their remaining opponents (1.51) which include Kidderminster, a resurgent Southport, Telford, Macclesfield and Fylde. But if they remain in the mix after that, their final two fixtures against Oxford City and King’s Lynn offer the Seals genuine hope of rescuing a promotion push which previously looked impossible.

The outsiders

Buxton

Current standing: 11^th, 48pts from 36 games

Run-in: 4 at home, 6 away

Form guide (last 6): 20th place with 6pts

Comment: Buxton occupied the final play-off place last season and were expected to build on this success this campaign. But they’ve been wildly inconsistent for long periods, losing almost half (16) of their league fixtures so far. Two wins in their last three over Merthyr and Darlington have given the Bucks the faintest of hopes. Their run-in too (combined PPG of 1.21) is by far the easiest of any remaining play-off contender.

However, Buxton’s own current PPG is 1.33. They’re going to need to average something like 2.3 PPG over their last ten games to stand any chance, which based on the streaky form for the majority of this season seems absurd.

Marine

Current standing: 12^th, 48pts from 34 games

Run-in: 5 at home, 7 away

Form guide (last 6): 13th place with 7pts

Comment: Three defeats in a row, including Tuesday’s setback at home to the Silkmen, have given Marine a mountain to climb. But they have games in hand on all of the play-off contenders (except us), and as many as three and four games in hand on Telford (7^th, 56pts) and Scarborough (6^th, 58pts) respectively so all is not lost.

Marine have a less taxing run-in, but an FA Trophy semi-final against Wealdstone is likely to be command their attention possibly over a late push for a play-off position. The Mariners’ estimated final points tally is 65 points, which won’t be enough to make the play-offs.

Final predictions

Automatic promotion: AFC Flylde

Second: South Shields

Third: Kidderminster Harriers

Fourth: Macclesfield FC

Fifth: Merthyr Town

Sixth: Darlington

Seventh: Scarborough Athletic

I’ll regularly review the Silkmen’s progress as the drama unfolds, but based on these predictions, don’t go booking any holidays until after the 25^th April just yet!